Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: Application of new methods to the case of Sweden

Background: Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes. Methods: Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime. Results: Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3-24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1-37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35-59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60-92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334-1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543-2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22-34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35-49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively. Conclusions: There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled

The Abelian Topological Mass Mechanism From Dimensional Reduction

We show that the abelian topological mass mechanism in four dimensions, described by the Cremmer-Sherk action, can be obtained from dimensional reduction in five dimensions. Starting from a gauge invariant action in five dimensions, where the dual equivalence between a massless vector field and a massless second-rank antisymmetric field in five dimensions is established, the dimensional reduction is performed keeping only one massive mode. Furthermore, the Kalb-Ramond action and the Stuckelberger formulation for massive spin-1 are recovered.Comment: Three references added, 6 pages, late

Dark Matter Gravitational Interactions

We argue that the conjectured dark mater in the Universe may be endowed with a new kind of gravitational charge that couples to a short range gravitational interaction mediated by a massive vector field. A model is constructed that assimilates this concept into ideas of current inflationary cosmology. The model is also consistent with the observed behaviour of galactic rotation curves according to Newtonian dynamics. The essential idea is that stars composed of ordinary (as opposed to dark matter) experience Newtonian forces due to the presence of an all pervading background of massive gravitationally charged cold dark matter. The novel gravitational interactions are predicted to have a significant influence on pre-inflationary cosmology. The precise details depend on the nature of a gravitational Proca interaction and the description of matter. A gravitational Proca field configuration that gives rise to attractive forces between dark matter charges of like polarity exhibits homogeneous isotropic eternal cosmologies that are free of cosmological curvature singularities thus eliminating the horizon problem associated with the standard big-bang scenario. Such solutions do however admit dense hot pre-inflationary epochs each with a characteristic scale factor that may be correlated with the dark matter density in the current era of expansion. The model is based on a theory in which a modification of Einsteinian gravity at very short distances can be expressed in terms of the gradient of the Einstein metric and the torsion of a non-Riemannian connection on the bundle of linear frames over spacetime. Indeed we demonstrate that the genesis of the model resides in a remarkable simplification that occurs when one analyses the variational equations associated with a broad class of non-Riemannian actions.Comment: 40 pages, 4 Postscript figure

Alcohol consumption and the physical availability of take-away alcohol: systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the days and hours of sale and outlet density.

OBJECTIVE: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were completed studying the effect of changes in the physical availability of take-away alcohol on per capita alcohol consumption. Previous reviews examining this topic have not focused on off-premise outlets where take-away alcohol is sold and have not completed meta-analyses. METHOD: Systematic reviews were conducted separately for policies affecting the temporal availability (days and hours of sale) and spatial availability (outlet density) of take-away alcohol. Studies were included up to December 2015. Quality criteria were used to select articles that studied the effect of changes in these policies on alcohol consumption with a focus on natural experiments. Random-effects meta-analyses were applied to produce the estimated effect of an additional day of sale on total and beverage-specific consumption. RESULTS: Separate systematic reviews identified seven studies regarding days and hours of sale and four studies regarding density. The majority of articles included in these systematic reviews, for days/hours of sale (7/7) and outlet density (3/4), concluded that restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol reduces per capita alcohol consumption. Meta-analyses studying the effect of adding one additional day of sale found that this was associated with per capita consumption increases of 3.4% (95% CI [2.7, 4.1]) for total alcohol, 5.3% (95% CI [3.2, 7.4]) for beer, 2.6% (95% CI [1.8, 3.5]) for wine, and 2.6% (95% CI [2.1, 3.2]) for spirits. The small number of included studies regarding hours of sale and density precluded meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that decreasing the physical availability of take-away alcohol will decrease per capita consumption. As decreasing per capita consumption has been shown to reduce alcohol-related harm, restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol would be expected to result in improvements to public health

Palaeozoic giant dragonfies were hawker predators

The largest insects to have ever lived were the giant meganeurids of the Late Palaeozoic, ancient stem relatives of our modern dragonfies. With wingspans up to 71cm, these iconic insects have been the subject of varied documentaries on Palaeozoic life, depicting them as patrolling for prey through coal swamp forests amid giant lycopsids, and cordaites. Such reconstructions are speculative as few defnitive details of giant dragonfy biology are known. Most specimens of giant dragonfies are known from wings or isolated elements, but Meganeurites gracilipes preserves critical body structures, most notably those of the head. Here we show that it is unlikely it thrived in densely forested environments where its elongate wings would have become easily damaged. Instead, the species lived in more open habitats and possessed greatly enlarged compound eyes. These were dorsally hypertrophied, a specialization for long-distance vision above the animal in fight, a trait convergent with modern hawker dragonfies. Sturdy mandibles with acute teeth, strong spines on tibiae and tarsi, and a pronounced thoracic skewness are identical to those specializations used by dragonfies in capturing prey while in fight. The Palaeozoic Odonatoptera thus exhibited considerable morphological specializations associated with behaviours attributable to ‘hawkers’ or ‘perchers’ among extant Odonata.This work benefted from a grant of the French ‘Agence Nationale de la Recherche’ via the program ‘Investissements d’avenir’ (ANR-11-INBS-0004-RECOLNAT)JP and MP gratefully acknowledge research support from the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic No. 18-03118 SThe work of MSE was supported by US National Science Foundation grant DEB-114416

Surface realization with the intersection edge functional

Deciding realizability of a given polyhedral map on a (compact, connected) surface belongs to the hard problems in discrete geometry, from the theoretical, the algorithmic, and the practical point of view. In this paper, we present a heuristic algorithm for the realization of simplicial maps, based on the intersection edge functional. The heuristic was used to find geometric realizations in R^3 for all vertex-minimal triangulations of the orientable surfaces of genus g=3 and g=4. Moreover, for the first time, examples of simplicial polyhedra in R^3 of genus 5 with 12 vertices were obtained.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, various minor revisions, to appear in Experimental Mathematic

Refinement and Pattern Formation in Neural Circuits by the Interaction of Traveling Waves with Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity

Traveling waves in the developing brain are a prominent source of highly correlated spiking activity that may instruct the refinement of neural circuits. A candidate mechanism for mediating such refinement is spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP), which translates correlated activity patterns into changes in synaptic strength. To assess the potential of these phenomena to build useful structure in developing neural circuits, we examined the interaction of wave activity with STDP rules in simple, biologically plausible models of spiking neurons. We derive an expression for the synaptic strength dynamics showing that, by mapping the time dependence of STDP into spatial interactions, traveling waves can build periodic synaptic connectivity patterns into feedforward circuits with a broad class of experimentally observed STDP rules. The spatial scale of the connectivity patterns increases with wave speed and STDP time constants. We verify these results with simulations and demonstrate their robustness to likely sources of noise. We show how this pattern formation ability, which is analogous to solutions of reaction-diffusion systems that have been widely applied to biological pattern formation, can be harnessed to instruct the refinement of postsynaptic receptive fields. Our results hold for rich, complex wave patterns in two dimensions and over several orders of magnitude in wave speeds and STDP time constants, and they provide predictions that can be tested under existing experimental paradigms. Our model generalizes across brain areas and STDP rules, allowing broad application to the ubiquitous occurrence of traveling waves and to wave-like activity patterns induced by moving stimuli

On the Origin of the Functional Architecture of the Cortex

The basic structure of receptive fields and functional maps in primary visual cortex is established without exposure to normal sensory experience and before the onset of the critical period. How the brain wires these circuits in the early stages of development remains unknown. Possible explanations include activity-dependent mechanisms driven by spontaneous activity in the retina and thalamus, and molecular guidance orchestrating thalamo-cortical connections on a fine spatial scale. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis: the blueprint for receptive fields, feature maps, and their inter-relationships may reside in the layout of the retinal ganglion cell mosaics along with a simple statistical connectivity scheme dictating the wiring between thalamus and cortex. The model is shown to account for a number of experimental findings, including the relationship between retinotopy, orientation maps, spatial frequency maps and cytochrome oxidase patches. The theory's simplicity, explanatory and predictive power makes it a serious candidate for the origin of the functional architecture of primary visual cortex

Methodology of calculation of construction and hydrodynamic parameters of a foam layer apparatus for mass-transfer processes

Промислова реалізація методу стабілізації газорідинного шару дозволяє значно розширити галузь застосування пінних апаратів і відкриває нові можливості інтенсифікації технологічних процесів з одночасним створенням маловідходних технологій. У статті встановлені основні параметри, що впливають на гідродинаміку пінних апаратів, розглянуті основні конструкції та режими роботи пінних апаратів. Виявлено зв'язок гідродинамічних параметрів. Розглянуто гідродинамічні закономірності пінного шару. Вказані фактори, що впливають на процес масообміну, як в газовій, так і в рідкій фазах. Проведений аналіз ряду досліджень показав, що перспективним напрямком інтенсифікації процесу масообміну є розробка апаратів з трифазним псевдозрідженим шаром зрошуваної насадки складних форм із сітчастих матеріалів. Отже, необхідне проведення спеціальних досліджень гідродинамічних режимів роботи апарату з сітчастою насадкою і визначенням параметрів, що впливають на швидкість переходу насадки з одного режиму в інший.Industrial implementation of the stabilization method of the gas-liquid layer can significantly expand the field of use of foaming apparatus and opens up new opportunities for intensifying technological processes with the simultaneous creation of low-waste technologies. The article establishes the basic parameters influencing the hydrodynamics of foam apparatus, considers the basic constructions and operating modes of foam apparatus. The connection of hydrodynamic parameters is revealed. The hydrodynamic laws of the foam layer are considered. The indicated factors affecting the process of mass transfer, both in the gas and in the liquid phases. The conducted analysis of a number of studies showed that the perspective direction of intensification of the mass transfer process is the development of apparatuses with a three-phase fluidized bed of an irrigated nozzle of complex forms with mesh materials